Homework 5

1: Windows 7 released before dec09 (30 US$ invested)

2: net neutrality by end of 2010 (52 US$ invested)

3: gasoline price by September 30th 2.50=> (600 US$ invested)

4: US agrees to lower CO2 emissions under UNFCCC 20 % => by 2025 (220 US$ invested)

5: internet gambling to be outlawed by December, 31, 2010

6: Google's market share by December 2009

7: apple gaming by 2011

8: cable companies forced to change their model by 2015 due to the internet

9: mad cow disease to be detected in the US before dec 31

10: bird flu to be confirmed in the US before 30th of September, 2009


I listed the first 4 first because those are the few predictions I found worth investing in. some of the others looked really promising, but the prediction I had matched up with the majority of others. For example the internet gambling to be outlawed by 2009, if it was possible I would bet against that, because I am very sure that such a thing will not be outlawed for some time, due to the difficulty of actually enforcing such a thing.

As far as net neutrality, that is the one I plan to make the most money off of. Yes windows 7 by December 09 seemed like a good bet at first, because recently around the time I made the bid, it was announced that it would be released in October. The only problem with that is I bought at a rather high value, so the profit will be rather small. However with the net neutrality it was roughly at the 50 % mark, with a lot of news about the FCC wanting to enforce at least some form of net neutrality, I believe that this market will come to a conclusion fairly soon. My hope is that the FCC will succeed in passing something close enough to the current definition of net neutrality, so that the value of my contracts will near double. Because of the nature of that specific contract, if the FCC does pass something, but it does not qualify for the prediction market's definition of net neutrality then it will be a total loss, because the chances of the FCC revising it to the point of acceptance by in-trade would not happen, or at least take longer then the time allotted for the prediction.

Gasoline prices where a easy prediction, after going on a few sites and viewing global graphs on price, with my limited, but still not negligible knowledge of the individual state's average consumption, I was able to put together a national average on the price of gas. Although there was a nice amount of the states that where in the 2.30 US$ range per gallon, they are mostly southern states that typically are not as populated in comparison to the other states where gas was far greater, peaking to 2.70 with an average of at least 2.50 US$. The amount of money I will make off this prediction will be more than the windows 7 because the methods I used to determine my predictions re accessible to others, but it is still a better option than some of the I did not invest in.