Homework 3 (delphi method)

(1) my question to ask in class is; what will be the average human lifespan in the year 2050 (in 40 years)
I chose this question because it is a statistic that has risen over the past centuries of medical evolution. It allows for such thoughts as “will we ever live forever, through some incredible medical breakthrough” and “maybe we will find a hard limit that we can not generally pass”. It's a open question that allows for a broad range of unknowns, but also has a lot of statistics in the past to draw from, for those who know them.

(2/3)the Delphi method ideally should have each of the members giving their estimates remain anonymous to the other members. The method we used in class was roughly based in the Delphi method, in the fact that we had several people give information, sum it up, explain their reasoning, then adjust their thoughts. Since everyone saw everyone else, knowing the number and reasoning that each person provided, it broke down the anonymity of the members to each other, allowing for bias. Not just that but the greatest flaw was related to anonymity in a way, we all could hear each other speak , therefore as the data was being collected, each person could then be biased by the other person's results, therefore rendering their own opinion biased with feedback before their primary conclusion. With these biased results, the ending numbers/reasons are most likely different then what would have been otherwise, this is a problem because the expertise of each member, which the Delphi method holds as it's strongest point are broken down.