1:
A:
1: (http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/)
2:(http://www.lightingdesignlab.com/articles/LED_fund/led_advant.htm)
3:(http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1042158/japan-offers-gigabit-broadband)
B:
1: this site is a terrific resource for researching automatic driving cars, it is very detailed but still an easy read. The topics covered range from what the technology is, the different methods to possibly achieve it, the progression so far, all the way to things like the ethical issues. The site is well rounded in it's content, and although it may look rather unprofessional, the information is superb.
2: if you are looking for a non-wiki or front page result on Google as this homework required, this web page is a rather nice source. It has the basic statistics like the lifespan of the average LED, the efficiency in light/to power compared to other lighting technologies, and the ability to operate in all colors. Although your best sources for getting more detailed information would most likely be wiki, or whatever Google comes up with as a obvious answer (search engines exist for a reason, they bring up results) this is still a fair site.
3: simply put, this website proves it already exists. If you look around at statistics for world wide bandwidth, you will find certain areas like japan, Sweden, specific areas in china (Hong Kong) and Korea have extremely high speeds in comparison to the rest of the world.
C: (classwork)
2:
A:
the topic I chose for my term project was the future of humans and computer entertainment, so it is kind of a broad field. Because of this I can not easily branch off without taking a specific idea of something that may evolve entertainment in the future. So I will do a bit of both, by providing a specific example of the future of computer entertainment, and also describing how the technologies can branch out to outside the entertainment field.
A good example of this would be the future augmentation of electronics into our bodies. This can be done to provide a faster, and more expansive input for games, and digital recreation in general (from control of movies, to moving around music files in your queue with the wave of a hand) but besides it's entertainment purposes, this same technology could use the collected information sent from your body/mind to it, to also help the medical field. For example, if you get a overall generic implant into your brain that can interact with it, you could use it as a hub to get information from the brain about what is generally going on in the body. This is a very generic application, but it still shows how the same technology can branch out into distinctly different uses.
B:
1: Beforehand Cushioning – when dealing with cybernetic implants (which will be a major evolution in the computer entertainment field) you will need to have some sort of safeguards to prevent the implants from causing harm if they ever malfunction. An example of this would be cutting the connection from the implant to the brain, if they are not co-dependent.
2:Dynamics – for the implants, it would be very useful for them to adapt to better suit the structure of your brain, as not every structure is the same. If you could create a generic model for mass production, that when implanted, or at any time after/during use it could adapt to your brain to function properly. you could cut down on the cost and maintain efficiency for the product by avoiding customization in the production line.
3:continuity of useful action – this may sound obvious, but even if the implant is used for entertainment purposes, when not in use for that purpose, it should be able to augment other mental challenges, such as providing you with faster mathematical computations, or something similar that expands it's scope of use.
4:Mechanics Substitutions – although you may think as all implants being digital, this is not always the case. Going outside the scope of entertainment a bit, you could have cybernetic implants interact with mechanical implants. For example, for someone who as a inoperable arm or leg, you could replace it with mechanical parts that are given signals by a cybernetic implant to move. However, you could remove the mechanical implant, and replace the nerve function with a system of artificial replacements that could work on the muscles to move a arm/leg, assuming that the only problem is the nerves in that part.
5:flexible shells and thin films – cybernetic implants even when they first come out for the general consumer market will most likely be made of some sort of thin film, but over time I predict that they will evolve to the point of being more flexible, until they are mostly biological instead of electronic.
6: homogeneity – as mentioned in # 5, as the implants evolve, most likely they will move to biological rather then electronic. Closely mimicking the brain's composite material/structure to create a better link.
7: discarding and recovering- depending on how these cybernetic implants are created, when it comes time to replace them, they should be able to dissolve, or somehow remove itself. This would make replacing it easier. However, instead of having the implant destroy itself, if it would be worth it you could try to recover it. Say for example that the material that these implants are made from are easy to recycle, or for some reason are valuable, then it may be profitable to manufacture them to remove there self , but still be removable.
8: parameter changes – if the implant could change it's state, this could be a method to remove these implants. If they can change state and in doing so detach from the brain/body, then they could be removed easier. This principle works well with #7 .
9: taking out – after the implant is augmented with the brain, and if it adapts to your brain/body's structure, it may have certain parts left over after the adaption that are there for universality. But since it has adapted to it's purpose, these parts may not be used anymore. So it may be useful to reduce resources used/other things by shutting off or taking out these parts.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Monday, September 21, 2009
Homework 5
1: Windows 7 released before dec09 (30 US$ invested)
2: net neutrality by end of 2010 (52 US$ invested)
3: gasoline price by September 30th 2.50=> (600 US$ invested)
4: US agrees to lower CO2 emissions under UNFCCC 20 % => by 2025 (220 US$ invested)
5: internet gambling to be outlawed by December, 31, 2010
6: Google's market share by December 2009
7: apple gaming by 2011
8: cable companies forced to change their model by 2015 due to the internet
9: mad cow disease to be detected in the US before dec 31
10: bird flu to be confirmed in the US before 30th of September, 2009
I listed the first 4 first because those are the few predictions I found worth investing in. some of the others looked really promising, but the prediction I had matched up with the majority of others. For example the internet gambling to be outlawed by 2009, if it was possible I would bet against that, because I am very sure that such a thing will not be outlawed for some time, due to the difficulty of actually enforcing such a thing.
As far as net neutrality, that is the one I plan to make the most money off of. Yes windows 7 by December 09 seemed like a good bet at first, because recently around the time I made the bid, it was announced that it would be released in October. The only problem with that is I bought at a rather high value, so the profit will be rather small. However with the net neutrality it was roughly at the 50 % mark, with a lot of news about the FCC wanting to enforce at least some form of net neutrality, I believe that this market will come to a conclusion fairly soon. My hope is that the FCC will succeed in passing something close enough to the current definition of net neutrality, so that the value of my contracts will near double. Because of the nature of that specific contract, if the FCC does pass something, but it does not qualify for the prediction market's definition of net neutrality then it will be a total loss, because the chances of the FCC revising it to the point of acceptance by in-trade would not happen, or at least take longer then the time allotted for the prediction.
Gasoline prices where a easy prediction, after going on a few sites and viewing global graphs on price, with my limited, but still not negligible knowledge of the individual state's average consumption, I was able to put together a national average on the price of gas. Although there was a nice amount of the states that where in the 2.30 US$ range per gallon, they are mostly southern states that typically are not as populated in comparison to the other states where gas was far greater, peaking to 2.70 with an average of at least 2.50 US$. The amount of money I will make off this prediction will be more than the windows 7 because the methods I used to determine my predictions re accessible to others, but it is still a better option than some of the I did not invest in.
2: net neutrality by end of 2010 (52 US$ invested)
3: gasoline price by September 30th 2.50=> (600 US$ invested)
4: US agrees to lower CO2 emissions under UNFCCC 20 % => by 2025 (220 US$ invested)
5: internet gambling to be outlawed by December, 31, 2010
6: Google's market share by December 2009
7: apple gaming by 2011
8: cable companies forced to change their model by 2015 due to the internet
9: mad cow disease to be detected in the US before dec 31
10: bird flu to be confirmed in the US before 30th of September, 2009
I listed the first 4 first because those are the few predictions I found worth investing in. some of the others looked really promising, but the prediction I had matched up with the majority of others. For example the internet gambling to be outlawed by 2009, if it was possible I would bet against that, because I am very sure that such a thing will not be outlawed for some time, due to the difficulty of actually enforcing such a thing.
As far as net neutrality, that is the one I plan to make the most money off of. Yes windows 7 by December 09 seemed like a good bet at first, because recently around the time I made the bid, it was announced that it would be released in October. The only problem with that is I bought at a rather high value, so the profit will be rather small. However with the net neutrality it was roughly at the 50 % mark, with a lot of news about the FCC wanting to enforce at least some form of net neutrality, I believe that this market will come to a conclusion fairly soon. My hope is that the FCC will succeed in passing something close enough to the current definition of net neutrality, so that the value of my contracts will near double. Because of the nature of that specific contract, if the FCC does pass something, but it does not qualify for the prediction market's definition of net neutrality then it will be a total loss, because the chances of the FCC revising it to the point of acceptance by in-trade would not happen, or at least take longer then the time allotted for the prediction.
Gasoline prices where a easy prediction, after going on a few sites and viewing global graphs on price, with my limited, but still not negligible knowledge of the individual state's average consumption, I was able to put together a national average on the price of gas. Although there was a nice amount of the states that where in the 2.30 US$ range per gallon, they are mostly southern states that typically are not as populated in comparison to the other states where gas was far greater, peaking to 2.70 with an average of at least 2.50 US$. The amount of money I will make off this prediction will be more than the windows 7 because the methods I used to determine my predictions re accessible to others, but it is still a better option than some of the I did not invest in.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Homework 4
the delphi method topic i chose was the average human lifespan in the US, in the year 2050. although that is an interesting topic, i think i will switch my term project to that of humans and the future of computer entertainment. the kind of things i would like to look into are more advanced man/machine interfaces, and looking into the evolution of ingenuity and innovation instead of just increasing the looks/other simplistic aspects of things like computer games.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Homework 3 (delphi method)
(1) my question to ask in class is; what will be the average human lifespan in the year 2050 (in 40 years)
I chose this question because it is a statistic that has risen over the past centuries of medical evolution. It allows for such thoughts as “will we ever live forever, through some incredible medical breakthrough” and “maybe we will find a hard limit that we can not generally pass”. It's a open question that allows for a broad range of unknowns, but also has a lot of statistics in the past to draw from, for those who know them.
(2/3)the Delphi method ideally should have each of the members giving their estimates remain anonymous to the other members. The method we used in class was roughly based in the Delphi method, in the fact that we had several people give information, sum it up, explain their reasoning, then adjust their thoughts. Since everyone saw everyone else, knowing the number and reasoning that each person provided, it broke down the anonymity of the members to each other, allowing for bias. Not just that but the greatest flaw was related to anonymity in a way, we all could hear each other speak , therefore as the data was being collected, each person could then be biased by the other person's results, therefore rendering their own opinion biased with feedback before their primary conclusion. With these biased results, the ending numbers/reasons are most likely different then what would have been otherwise, this is a problem because the expertise of each member, which the Delphi method holds as it's strongest point are broken down.
I chose this question because it is a statistic that has risen over the past centuries of medical evolution. It allows for such thoughts as “will we ever live forever, through some incredible medical breakthrough” and “maybe we will find a hard limit that we can not generally pass”. It's a open question that allows for a broad range of unknowns, but also has a lot of statistics in the past to draw from, for those who know them.
(2/3)the Delphi method ideally should have each of the members giving their estimates remain anonymous to the other members. The method we used in class was roughly based in the Delphi method, in the fact that we had several people give information, sum it up, explain their reasoning, then adjust their thoughts. Since everyone saw everyone else, knowing the number and reasoning that each person provided, it broke down the anonymity of the members to each other, allowing for bias. Not just that but the greatest flaw was related to anonymity in a way, we all could hear each other speak , therefore as the data was being collected, each person could then be biased by the other person's results, therefore rendering their own opinion biased with feedback before their primary conclusion. With these biased results, the ending numbers/reasons are most likely different then what would have been otherwise, this is a problem because the expertise of each member, which the Delphi method holds as it's strongest point are broken down.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
homework 2
1:
broadband penetration in the US represents the advancement and quality of the net for the country as a whole. even if everyone in the US was connected to the internet, if they are on a dial-up connection then the bandwidth supplied to them is below what modern pages need to view. ever since it gained popularity in the mid 90s, the content on the internet has been evolving, and so has the connection speeds for the users with it. starting in the late 90s broadband (high-speed) connections started to pick up, and have been increasing in numbers every month. as you can see from the graph here, from late 99 to 2006, there is a sharp increase that does not have any appearances of leveling off (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0408/broadband_hm_td_0407.gif)however if you look at an updated graph here (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0906/broadband_hm_td_0906.png) you notice that the total broadband penetration has leveled off due to the total number nearing 100 %.
based on previous and current graphs i predict that the broadband penetration for the US will continue to rise, but at a much much slower rate. the remaining 5 % of users that are not on high speed are most likely the people that live far out from any cities, or populated areas in general that do not have easy access to anything besides satellite connectivity, or dial-up. even by the year 2015 i doubt we will have reached the 98 % mark but regardless with near all of the country on higher speeds, for all intents and purposes there is not much of a reason to adapt to the needs of those without.
on a side note, although broadband connections may be what the majority have, the US household internet connectivity is not near 100 % as you can see from this graph (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0906/us-internet-connection-trends.png) a much smaller 70 % of the population is connected at all. however i believe this in the future will follow the same path as the broadband penetration over dial-up. the amount of people that do have connections will level off at around 9x % due to the nonavailability of the internet , or cost for a small percentage of people.
2:
6 % per year = 11.9 years to double.
2 years double = 41 % per year.
18 month double = 59 % per year.
at 2 % per year, it takes 35 years to double your initial amount.
broadband penetration in the US represents the advancement and quality of the net for the country as a whole. even if everyone in the US was connected to the internet, if they are on a dial-up connection then the bandwidth supplied to them is below what modern pages need to view. ever since it gained popularity in the mid 90s, the content on the internet has been evolving, and so has the connection speeds for the users with it. starting in the late 90s broadband (high-speed) connections started to pick up, and have been increasing in numbers every month. as you can see from the graph here, from late 99 to 2006, there is a sharp increase that does not have any appearances of leveling off (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0408/broadband_hm_td_0407.gif)however if you look at an updated graph here (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0906/broadband_hm_td_0906.png) you notice that the total broadband penetration has leveled off due to the total number nearing 100 %.
based on previous and current graphs i predict that the broadband penetration for the US will continue to rise, but at a much much slower rate. the remaining 5 % of users that are not on high speed are most likely the people that live far out from any cities, or populated areas in general that do not have easy access to anything besides satellite connectivity, or dial-up. even by the year 2015 i doubt we will have reached the 98 % mark but regardless with near all of the country on higher speeds, for all intents and purposes there is not much of a reason to adapt to the needs of those without.
on a side note, although broadband connections may be what the majority have, the US household internet connectivity is not near 100 % as you can see from this graph (http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0906/us-internet-connection-trends.png) a much smaller 70 % of the population is connected at all. however i believe this in the future will follow the same path as the broadband penetration over dial-up. the amount of people that do have connections will level off at around 9x % due to the nonavailability of the internet , or cost for a small percentage of people.
2:
6 % per year = 11.9 years to double.
2 years double = 41 % per year.
18 month double = 59 % per year.
at 2 % per year, it takes 35 years to double your initial amount.
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